Hello again! Before we dive into chapter 3, if you missed chapter 2 then please catch up here.
Last time out, we were at the end of the January transfer window, I’d just made six new signings and we sat 8th in the Premier League which was way higher than expected. Could we fight for a top 7 finish and get European football? Would we maintain pace and get a solid top half finish or would we drift away and potentially get drawn into what is fast becoming the standard end of season relegation battle for the Toffees?
Well thankfully it wasn’t the latter. We had toyed with the idea of European football at one point but ultimately fell short, we did manage to hold onto our 8th place though, finishing 7 points adrift of a European spot. We had been just 1 point off before losing our final 2 games. The highlight was a 4-1 dismantling of Man United, the low point being on the end of a 6-1 thrashing by Saudi backed Newcastle United, we did go down to ten men early on but it doesn’t excuse a score line like that. A run of 9 games unbeaten through March and April was what got us close to Europe however we did draw 5 of those games. There was no cup run to report on, which is something I’d like to change next year. Overall it was a really good first season in charge, finishing in 8th was higher than I’d hoped for.
In the previous chapter I was having a love affair with Alex Iwobi, its safe to say that is well and truly over. He had 6 goals and 6 assists, form suggested he would end up with double figures for both making it a really good season….he didn’t. In the second half of the campaign he got 0 goals and 1 assist, I tried the arm around the shoulder and even tough love, neither worked. What makes it worse is that at the start of February I had a big call to make, Iwobi’s contract was due to expire at the end of the following season so I either had to renew it or force a sale in the summer. Having already being stung by Pickford deciding that he wanted to consider his options, it felt like a no brainer to offer him a new deal. Despite feeling he was overpaid, his form had been very good, I tied him down until the end of June 2027 with no pay increase….he’s made me a look a right mug. Lets hope we can find more of the first half of the season Alex Iwobi next time around…
When assessing my striking options in Chapter Two, I mentioned that Dominic Calvert-Lewin had to prove his fitness otherwise he’d be off. He didn’t just prove his fitness, he proved that he is by far my best player, after missing the first few months of the season as he was injured when I took over, he came back and performed incredibly. A fantastic 22 goals in 27 starts, with 6 assists to go along with them. I didn’t mention it during the last post but PSG bid for him in January, it was a derisory bid of around £30m, I want much more than that if I have to sell which obviously I don’t want to. With Man City, Newcastle United and Real Madrid all now circling and only 24 months left on his contract, unfortunately I may have no choice.
Below is a view of the whole squads performance throughout this campaign.
Here are a few key points on the current squad:
- Despite not being happy with Alex Iwobi’s return in the second half of the season, he still finishes as our second top scorer. We are far to reliant on Dominic Calvert-Lewin for goals, I need more goals from elsewhere in the side, this need will be enhanced if we fail to hold onto our bags man.
- Finding a central defensive partnership I’m happy with has been a struggle all season. Tarkowski started as first choice but really tailed off, Ben Godfrey was probably the stand out without actually being that good.
- Francisco Ortega started slow but once he settled in performed really well towards the end. You may remember I have agreed a deal to sign left back Aarón on a free, its an easy decision to move Vitaliy Mykolenko on.
- Ryan Gauld and Julián Fernández have both shown they are upgrades on Dwight McNeil and Demarai Gray in the wide spots.
- Álvaro Fidalgo has struggled in the CM attack role but I think I can get more out of him elsewhere.
So what now? We need more goals in the team, do I stick with what we’re doing but sign better players or do I change tactically?
I decided to opt for the latter, we need more players further up the pitch so I’m going to try and go with a 4231 formation. This should hopefully get more from Fidalgo as well as taking my deep lying playmaker from defend to support, giving them more opportunity to have an influence on the game. My one concern is the impact it’ll have on Amadou Onana, I’ve been really impressed with him and I worry that moving him from a Carrilero to a Ball Winning Midfielder defend may stifle him, but only time will tell.
During the latter part of the season I did change my 433 to having a double pivot with Onana becoming a Segundo Volante rather than Carrilero, it made some difference but not enough to make me think that’s the solution. In the long term I’d like to have a 433 that has a front 3 that are all high scorers but I think I’d have to make too many personnel changes to get to that now so will hold off for a bit however that is my long term aim.
Before we look at the shape of the squad, the last post showed that we had been predicted a golden generation, did we get one? No but it was still described as an excellent Intake.
It had a couple of Elite talents in Rob Morgan and Jake Kelly who both look like they have good potential. I’m not sure they’ll make first 11 standards but I’ll certainly try and get them there. Out of the rest I like the look of Afeez Oche, he needs work on his physicals but his technicals and mentals are decent.
So with the formation decided for the 23/24 campaign, how does that leave the squad looking as I plot what changes need to be made during the summer campaign? One thing to note is that I like a 25 man squad so that means 2x every role, plus a third choice keeper, an extra midfielder who can play both cm and am, then finally an attacker who can play through the middle and out wide.
- Goalkeeper – Pickford has 12 months left on his deal, he won’t discuss a new contract. I’ve agreed with him I’ll accept offers of £40m but I don’t think we’ll get any that high. Norwich and Watford have both been promoted and are showing major interest however surely moves to both of those sides is a downgrade so I can’t see him joining either. Man Utd are showing minor interest, they are who worry me, I don’t want him to go. I’m considering risking having just 2 goalkeepers and loaning Mier out to give him development till Christmas, promoting Virgínia to number 2 who has just spent the season on loan at Cambuur.
- Full back – I need a back up right back to replace the outgoing Coleman, its the only empty spot in the squad making it my main priority. Patterson has been quality so someone happy playing second fiddle will do. On the left we will hopefully be able to find a buyer for Mykolenko to recoup the majority of the £17m Everton signed him for.
- Centre Back – Jarrad Branthwaite has developed nicely at PSV, he is my only left sided centre back, he comes straight back in. Godfrey was my best centre back last season but I still think I can do better. Ideally I’ll replace Holgate and Tarkowski but those deals aren’t high on the priority list.
- Centre/Attacking Mid – We have returning loans that I can hopefully move on permanently. You will have seen Dele Alli on there and are probably thinking his time has gone surely? You would be right! He had a woeful loan at Beşiktaş but he’s my only back up midfielder who can play cm and am so that’s why he’s on there currently. I want him and his £100k per week wages gone, after right back this is my second priority to change.
- Wide men – McNeil hasn’t been as good as I expected him to be but I am considering moving him to the right and getting rid of Gray. Then I could bring in someone else to compete with Gauld on the left. Again this isn’t a main priority but more a nice to have should I get round to it.
- Attackers – Keeping hold of Calvert-Lewin is key, there is a big drop off to Maupay but spending money on a replacement for him who ultimately isn’t going to play is again not a high priority. Having said that he’s 1 appearance off me having to pay Brighton more money which puts him further up the list to move on than some of my other players. Ellis Simms can’t play out wide, I want my third choice to be able to cover up top and out wide so I’ll try to get that done this summer.
As part of doing this I need to consider homegrown by club (something we are struggling with) and nation as I want to get us into Europe next year. I’d also to like bring in some more prospects so that I can develop players for the first team as opposed to having to buy first team players each window.
To do this the board kindly gave me £50m to spend, so how did I get on?
Well it was a very, very busy summer, I’ll run through it position by position.
Goalkeeper: Only Watford bid for Pickford, the offer was only £17m but regardless of what decision I made Jordan had no interest in speaking to them. He stays as our number 1, he has less than 12 months remaining on his contract and still won’t talk about a new deal. The likelihood is that he will leave on a free transfer next summer which will be a blow but to mitigate against that I’ve already signed his replacement. Austrian Niklas Hedl arrives for £9.25m but immediately returns to Rapid Wien on loan to ensure he has another year of first team football to develop. Adam Davies also joins, he goes against my usual transfer policy but I’m happy to do so at the price of £250k. He is homegrown by club and will be my third choice keeper, João Virgínia again goes out on loan, this time to Portuguese side Chaves, leaving Mier as second choice after no clubs showed an interest in loaning him.
Full back: I’d already mentioned that Aarón was arriving on a free at left back, he replaced Mykolenko who signed for Watford recouping the full £17m he was signed for. At right back José Hurtado comes in from Bragantino in Brazil, its £4m but could rise to £6m dependent on appearances. He is more of a wing back which gives me good options with Patterson being better in the full back role. Youngster Timothée Pembélé also signs, £750k from PSG and immediately goes out on loan to Preston North End.
Centre Back: James Tarkowski has moved to Qatar on loan, Al-Duhail will pay a mandatory fee at the end of his loan meaning that along with the loan fee we will make £13m on him, much more than I expected. In his place Jordan Torunarigha arrives from Gent for what could eventually total £9m, he is left sided meaning that we now have a good balance with 2 left sided and 2 right sided options. Youngsters Ivan Cvetko and Aleksander Hammer Kjelsen will both join in January once they turn 18.
Centre/Attacking Mid: One in, one out within the first team squad. Dele Alli and his £100k per week wages are now Crystal Palace’s problem, they surprisingly thought he was worth £4.7m. Croatian midfielder Luka Ivanušec signs for £5m, he’s down as third choice but he’s just as good as my starting options so we now have real competition in the middle of the park. Jens Castrop was out of contract at Koln, we snapped him up and he will continue his development this year at Kaiserslautern. Another Vélez Sarsfield youngster comes in, unfortunately I couldn’t find a loan move for Raúl Cabral so he’ll train with the first team whilst appearing for the under 21s until January.
Wide men: Demarai Gray struggled last season and he drops into the Championship with Stoke for £6.75m. Incoming is Argentine Tomás Pozzo for an initial £7m, he should be a real goal threat and can play in the hole as well out wide.
Attackers: Now this is where it gets interesting, Calvert-Lewin wouldn’t talk about a new deal but no bids were coming in so it looked like he would be staying. Then a week before the season started, it was Man United who made their move. I didn’t accept straight away but after some negotiating I felt the offer was of a value I couldn’t say no to. We received £40m up front, we will get another £20m over the next 6 months and on top of that we will get another £20m once he has made 20 league appearances meaning the deal could eventually total £80m. This went through the day before the season started, it was tempting to dismiss my £10m transfer rule but I resisted the urge. It should be not on the shoulders of one individual to replace his goals, the whole team need to chip in more but Lorenzo Colombo is my new number 9 and will be expected to contribute the lion share. AC Milan deemed him surplus to requirements, at £3.6m I feel he’s an absolute snip, at the age of just 21 he’s only going to get better. Despite that I felt that it was too soon to place to much burden on him, as I don’t trust Maupay I let him move to Southampton for £8m, bringing Mexican José Juan Macías in for £8m to provide better competition. Ellis Simms moved to Derby so my third choice striker is now Lewis Dobbin. He was on loan at Derby last season, he’s not great but I’ve promoted him for homegrown by club purposes. Unlike Simms he can also play out wide. Danish striker Filip Bundgaard also comes in for £2.8m but returns to Randers FC for one more season to get first team football.
I feel like we now have more players in the squad who can contribute goals although we do lack that one guaranteed goal scorer although I’m hoping Colombo can prove to be that. My midfield is really versatile meaning I can switch things around if they aren’t going to plan. I feel we have a good number of youngsters who will develop at the club although I’d still like to increase that number further. This leaves the squad now looking like this…
We made some serious profit during the window, spending much less than we bought in, mainly thanks to the Calvert-Lewin deal. When I arrived at the club the wage bill was £2,004,622 p/w, its now £1,652,269 p/w making it the 15th highest in the league. The clubs remaining debt was £841m, its now £810m so there is still a huge way to go which shows why its important I’m still prudent in the transfer market. With that wage bill we should be happy with a bottom half finish but I’d like to build on last seasons strong performance and go one better and make Europe. Its a real challenge trying to improve whilst cutting costs but its one I’m enjoying.
Before I move onto the start of the season there is one other piece of news. We now have an affiliate club in Crewe Alexandra, they have excellent training facilities for a League Two side so it will be an ideal place to send prospects on loan.
Pre season went well, we won every game including the first ever Tournoi de Toffee and scored plenty of goals although a lot of them were from Calvert-Lewin! I felt confident that the tactical switch I’d made was the right one and was optimistic for the season ahead.
Into the season and that confidence and optimism didn’t last long. Despite taking the lead at the Emirates against the run of play, we went onto lose 4-1. It was a really poor performance where we were completely outclassed. Despite bouncing back with a win at home over Wolves I was still worried and I was right to be as a 2-0 defeat at St Marys followed. We never got going in either game and only beat Wolves thanks to set pieces. I know its very early on but the performances showed nothing, I kept with the tactic for the derby but again we were dire. At 2-0 down I changed to 4-3-3 with an attacking front 3, we got a goal back despite going down to 10 men and I decided to shift to that in the next game. We had a tough League Cup game away at Leicester and played really well, winning 3-1 against their first 11.
This tactic is how I want us to play moving forward. This is what my long term ambition has been for us to work towards however we’ve accidentally stumbled into it early on. I’d decided we weren’t ready to change to it at the end of last season, I’ve already changed my mind one month in. The inside forwards are expected to contribute and hopefully take the burden off the number 9.
Will it work or was the Leicester game a one off? Find out next time when I’ll review the remainder of my second season in charge of Everton.
Thank you as ever for reading.
Cheers,
The Last Throw.
LutterworthFox 